What's the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market?
What's the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market?
It’s no surprise that the upcoming Presidential election might have you speculating about what’s ahead. And those unanswered thoughts can quickly spiral, causing fear and uncertainty to swirl through your mind. So, if you’ve been considering buying or selling a home this year, you’re probably curious about what the election might mean for the housing market – and if it’s still a good time to make your move.
Here’s the good news that may surprise you: typically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. But your questions are definitely worth answering, so you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime.
Here’s a look at decades of data that shows exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates in previous Presidential election cycles, so you can move forward with the facts as you weigh the pros and cons of your homeownership decision.
Home SalesIn the month leading up to a Presidential election, from October to November, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales (see graph below):
Some consumers will simply wait it out before they make their purchase decision. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is small and temporary.
Historically, home sales bounce right back and continue to rise the following year. In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the year after the election, and it’s been happening consistently since the early 1990s (see chart below):
Home PricesYou may also be wondering about home prices. Do prices come down during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist notes:
“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”
Home prices generally rise over time, regardless of an election cycle. So, based on what history shows, you can expect the current pricing trend in your local market to likely continue, barring any unusual market or economic circumstances.
The latest data from NAR reveals that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see chart below):
The one outlier was from 2008 to 2009, which was during the height of the housing market crash. That was certainly not a typical year. Today’s market, however, is much more resilient. And while prices are moderating nationally, they aren’t on an overall decline.
Mortgage RatesAnd the third thing that’s likely on your mind is mortgage rates, since they impact your monthly payment if you’re financing a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of them (see chart below):
And this year, we’ve already started to see that happen. Most experts also forecast mortgage rates will ease slightly throughout the rest of 2024. If that happens – and all signs right now indicate it should – this year will continue to follow the trend of declining rates. So, if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be great news for your purchasing power.
What This Means for YouWhat’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually minimal. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:
“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”
For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.
Bottom Line
While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. And this means you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. For help navigating the market during this election cycle, feel free to reach out!
2 Big Changes Happening in the Real Estate Industry
If you've been on social media at all lately, you know that there are changes happening in the real estate industry right now. But what are those changes? It really boils down to two big changes.
Number one, buyer compensation is no longer being listed in the MLS. That means, as a seller, if you're willing to pay a buyer agent to represent a buyer and bring them to your property, that information is no longer public to that agent.
The second change is a big one. If you are a buyer and you want to look at a house, you must sign a buyer broker agreement with the agent that's going to open the door for you and let you into the property. So what are your thoughts about these changes?
Make sure to leave a comment below you!
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Helpful Negotiation Tactics for Today’s Housing Market
Helpful Negotiation Tactics for Today’s Housing Market
If you haven’t already heard, homebuyers are regaining some negotiating power in today’s market. And while that doesn’t make this a buyer’s market, it does mean buyers may be able to ask for a little more. So, sellers need to be ready for that possibility and know what they’re willing to negotiate.
Whether you’re looking to buy or sell a house, here’s a quick rundown of potential negotiations that may pop up during your transaction. That way, you’re prepared no matter which side of the deal you’re on.
What Can You Negotiate?
Most things in a home purchase are on the negotiation table. Here’s a list of just a few of those options, according to Kiplinger and LendingTree:
Sale Price: The most obvious is the price of the home. And that lever is being pulled more often today. Buyers don’t want to overpay when affordability is already so tight. And sellers who aren’t realistic about their asking price may have to consider adjusting their price.
Home Repairs: Based on the inspection, a buyer is within their rights to ask the seller to make reasonable repairs. If the seller doesn’t want to do that, they could offer to reduce the home price or cover some closing costs, so the buyer has the money to take them on themselves.
Fixtures: Buyers can also ask for appliances or furniture to convey when the house changes hands. Having the seller throw in the washer and dryer cuts down on expenses the buyer would have when moving in. As the seller, you could leave your existing ones behind to sweeten the deal for your buyer, and get yourself new ones for your next place.
Closing Costs: Closing costs typically run about 2-5% of the home’s purchase price. Buyers can ask the seller to pay for some or all of these expenses to offset the cash the buyer has to bring to the table.
Home Warranties: Buyers can also ask the seller to pay for a home warranty. This is great for buyers worried about the maintenance costs that may pop up after taking possession of the home. And since this concession usually isn’t terribly expensive for the seller, it can be a good option for both parties.
Closing Date: Buyers can ask for a faster or extended closing window based on their own timetable. The seller can also advocate for what they need based on their move to find the right compromise.
Sale Price: The most obvious is the price of the home. And that lever is being pulled more often today. Buyers don’t want to overpay when affordability is already so tight. And sellers who aren’t realistic about their asking price may have to consider adjusting their price.
Home Repairs: Based on the inspection, a buyer is within their rights to ask the seller to make reasonable repairs. If the seller doesn’t want to do that, they could offer to reduce the home price or cover some closing costs, so the buyer has the money to take them on themselves.
Fixtures: Buyers can also ask for appliances or furniture to convey when the house changes hands. Having the seller throw in the washer and dryer cuts down on expenses the buyer would have when moving in. As the seller, you could leave your existing ones behind to sweeten the deal for your buyer, and get yourself new ones for your next place.
Closing Costs: Closing costs typically run about 2-5% of the home’s purchase price. Buyers can ask the seller to pay for some or all of these expenses to offset the cash the buyer has to bring to the table.
Home Warranties: Buyers can also ask the seller to pay for a home warranty. This is great for buyers worried about the maintenance costs that may pop up after taking possession of the home. And since this concession usually isn’t terribly expensive for the seller, it can be a good option for both parties.
Closing Date: Buyers can ask for a faster or extended closing window based on their own timetable. The seller can also advocate for what they need based on their move to find the right compromise.
One thing is true whether you’re a buyer or a seller, and that’s how much your agent can help you throughout the process. Your agent is your go-to for any back-and-forth. They’ll handle the conversations and advocate for your best interests along the way. As Bankrate says:
“Agents have expert negotiating skills. Without one, you must negotiate the terms of the contract on your own.”
They may also be able to uncover what the buyer or seller is looking for in their discussions with the other agent. And that insight can be really valuable at the negotiation table.
Bottom Line
Buyers are regaining a bit of negotiation power in today’s market. Buyers, knowing what levers you can pull will help you feel confident and empowered going into your purchase. Sellers, having a heads up of what they may ask for gives you the chance to think through what you’ll be willing to offer.
Want to know more about what to expect and the options you have? Let's talk!
Mortgage Rates Down a Full Percent from Recent High
Mortgage Rates Down a Full Percent from Recent High
Mortgage rates have been one of the hottest topics in the housing market lately because of their impact on affordability. And if you’re someone who’s looking to make a move, you’ve probably been waiting eagerly for rates to come down for that very reason. Well, if the past few weeks are any indication, you may be getting your wish.
Mortgage Rates Trend Down in Recent Weeks
There’s big news for mortgage rates. After the latest reports on the economy, inflation, the unemployment rate, and the Federal Reserve’s recent comments, mortgage rates started dropping a bit. And according to Freddie Mac, they’re now at a level we haven’t seen since February. To help show the downward trend, check out the graph below:
Maybe you’re seeing this and wondering if you should ride the wave and see how low they’ll go. If that’s the case, here’s some important perspective. Remember, the record-low rates from the pandemic are a thing of the past. If you’re holding out hope to see a 3% mortgage rate again, you’re waiting for something experts agree won’t happen. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:
“The hopes for lower interest rates need the reality check that ‘lower’ doesn’t mean we’re going back to 3% mortgage rates. . . the best we may be able to hope for over the next year is 5.5 to 6%.”
And with the decrease in recent weeks, you’ve got a big opportunity in front of you right now. It may be enough for you to want to jump back in.
The Relationship Between Rates and Demand
If you wait for mortgage rates to drop further, you might find yourself dealing with more competition as other buyers re-ignite their home searches too.
In the housing market, there’s generally a relationship between mortgage rates and buyer demand. Typically, the higher rates are, the lower buyer demand is. But when rates start to come down, things change. Buyers who were on the fence over higher rates will resume their searches. Here’s what that means for you. As a recent article from Bankrate says:
“If you’re ready to buy, now might be the time to strike. Home prices have been rising primarily because of a longstanding shortage of homes for sale. That’s unlikely to change, and if mortgage rates do fall below 6%, it’s possible buyers would enter the market en masse, further pushing up prices and resurrecting bidding wars.”
Bottom Line
If you’ve been waiting to make your move, the recent downward trend in mortgage rates may be enough to get you off the sidelines. Rates have hit their lowest point in months, and that gives you the opportunity to jump back in before all the other buyers do too.
If you’re ready and able to start the process, reach out and let's get started.
Haley Team
Phone:+1(270) 726-2900